Overview
Preliminary data indicates that overdose mortality declined significantly in 2024, with one exception, elder Black men. One 2022 study found that deaths among Black men aged 19-30 years are expected to decline by 9 percent in 2025 relative to 2020, while deaths among Black men aged 31-47 years are expected to rise by 11 percent.
After years of sharp increases in drug overdose deaths nationwide, the tide began to turn in 2022 and 2023, and preliminary data now indicates that overdose mortality declined significantly in 2024. The reasons for this decline are a matter of ongoing research and debate. While law enforcement agencies have claimed increased operations against fentanyl are responsible, public health researchers have shown that the decrease actually started before many prominent enforcement actions against fentanyl imports. Those experts instead point to local public health interventions that have increased the availability of overdose reversal medications, drug testing supplies, and medications for opioid use disorder.
Still, a national average only tells part of the story. A recent joint investigation by the New York Times, the Baltimore Banner, and several other local newsrooms reveals one pattern that diverges from the larger narrative: across various localities, elder Black men face increasingly disproportionate rates of overdose deaths. The pattern was detected across 10 cities, including Baltimore, Chicago, San Francisco, Newark, Washington D.C., Milwaukee, and Philadelphia. No similar pattern exists among the white population, for whom drug overdose deaths are more evenly distributed across age groups, with some heightened concentration in younger age groups. Click here to keep reading.